Temporal Trends and Climatic Determinants of Black Pepper Prices in Meghalaya: A Statistical Investigation
Abhishek Thakur
Division of Technology Assessment and Capacity Building, ICAR-Research Complex for North Eastern Hill Region, Umiam, Meghalaya (793 103), India
M. Bishonath Singh*
Division of Technology Assessment and Capacity Building, ICAR-Research Complex for North Eastern Hill Region, Umiam, Meghalaya (793 103), India
Wanbiang Dkhar
Division of Technology Assessment and Capacity Building, ICAR-Research Complex for North Eastern Hill Region, Umiam, Meghalaya (793 103), India
Anisha Thakur
Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat, Assam (785 013), India
Mousumi Thakur
Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat, Assam (785 013), India
DOI: NIL
Keywords: Black pepper, Climate variability, Price volatility, Trend
Abstract
This study examines the fluctuations in black pepper prices in Meghalaya and the impact of weather factors on price movements between 2014 and 2025. Sense slope estimate and the Mann-Kendall test were used and the results showed a marginal trend over time. The correlation between maximum temperature and price of black pepper was found to be significant (p=0.043, r=-0.76) amongst maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall. The negative correlation suggests that the increase in maximum temperature beyond the optimal and average temperature range may lead to a decline in production and its quality, which hampers the stability of price in the market. This leads to an increase in the reliance on cheaper imports and getting low price for their domestic produce. These findings strongly suggest the adoption of climate-resilient measures to protect and boost farmer’s income and to stabilize the market prices under adverse climatic conditions.
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Reference
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