Time Series Forecasting on Onion Production in Tamil Nadu using Appropriate Statistical Models
B. Sivasankari*
Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu (625 104), India
P. Sujatha
Dept. of Social Sciences, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Eachangkottai, Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu (641 902), India
M. Ilamaran
Dept. of Food Science and Nutrition, Community Science College and Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu (625 104), India
S. Sheeba
Dept. of Soils and Environment, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu (625 104), India
DOI: NIL
Keywords: ARIMA, Linear Model, MAE, RMSE
Abstract
A study on forecasting of production of onion crops in Tamil Nadu has been undertaken to fit different trend equations like linear, non-linear and time series models also made the future forecasts by 2023 AD. The study crops in all the districts of Tamil Nadu state as a whole using time series data from 1970-1971 to 2019-2020. For forecasting purpose linear and non-linear growth models viz., linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power, s-curve, logistic and exponential and time series models like ARIMA models were fitted to the onion production in Tamil Nadu. The best fitted model for future projection was chosen based upon least RMSE, R2 and MAPE values. ARIMA model was identified as the best model for onion production. It was observed that in Tamil Nadu, onion production showed decreasing trend by 2023 AD.
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Reference
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