The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is emerging from its cool phase and forecasts issued in March 2026 gave a 62% chance that El Niño would develop during June-August 2026 and persist through at least the end of the year. ENSO events have wider implications in addition to displacing weather patterns. Insects are ectotherms, which means that temperature and, by extension, humidity have a direct influence on their development, reproduction and dispersal. As a result of their sensitivity to temperature and aridity, ENSO exerts a discernible influence on crop pests. The nature and extent of this influence are determined by the thermal tolerances of the pests and the reactions of rainfall to ENSO in a given region. One of the most effective ways of improving predictive, climate-informed pest management is to build on ENSO seasonal forecasts by developing regional entomological alerts, such as those produced by the Desert Locust Watch (DLW) service at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Rome, Italy).
Sarkar, R., Keval, R., Yadav, S., Sharma, S., Raman, R., 2026. El Niño and insect pest dynamics: Implications for crop protection. Biotica Research Today 8(5), 77-79. DOI: 10.54083/BRT/08.05.26/77-79.
Crop pests, Crop protection, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Thermal thresholds
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NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2026. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion, 12 March 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, USA. Available at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_mar2026/ensodisc.shtml.
Skendžić, S., Zovko, M., Pajač Živković, I., Lešić, V., Lemić, D., 2021. The impact of climate change on agricultural insect pests. Insects 12(5), 440. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050440.
